Delhi assembly elections: What it will take for each party to win | Delhi Election 2020 Election News



NEW DELHI: Which party has to play catch-up in these assembly polls and just how much of a mountain does it have to climb to reach the top? The answer to that question depends on what we take as the reference point.
If it’s the last assembly polls, it is BJP that has to do a lot to overhaul AAP, if it’s the 2017 civic polls or the 2019 Lok Sabha election, the roles are reversed. In 2015, AAP’s near-total sweep came on the back of a 54.6% vote share, which comfortably eclipsed BJP’s 32.8% and, of course, the 9.7% that Congress won.
If we take this as the starting point, therefore, the minimum swing needed for BJP to catch up with AAP is 10.9 percentage points. In other words, if 10.9% of voters were to shift from AAP to BJP, both parties will end up with vote shares of 43.7% (54.6 minus 10.9 and 32.8 plus 10.9). Of course, if there is a swing away from AAP, but only a part of it goes to BJP and the rest to Congress or others, the asking rate for the saffron party will become even higher.
If, on the other hand, we take the 2017 civic polls as our starting point, BJP’s 36.1% was well ahead of AAP’s 26.2% and Congress’ 21.1%. To close the gap, AAP will need to wean away 5% of all voters from BJP to itself. That is, its asking rate is about half as tough as what BJP needs to do vis-à-vis the last assembly polls.
Again, this is assuming a neat swing from BJP to AAP. The gap between BJP and its rivals in 2019 was even larger than AAP’s lead in 2015. The saffron party got 56.9% of the votes, Congress was second with 22.6% and AAP third with 18.2%. Since by all accounts, Congress is not really in the race to win in Delhi this time round, let’s look at what it will take for AAP to close this gap. That works out to a swing of 19.4 percentage points from BJP to AAP, which will leave them almost level at about 37.5%-37.6%.
None of these swings — barring the one needed from 2017 — looks like an easy task to achieve. But the good news for both sides is that they have already done it in the past, between 2015 and 2017 in the case of BJP and between 2014 and 2015 for AAP. The fact that Delhi’s electorate grows so rapidly could also help. Between 2015 and 2019, the electorate grew from 133.1 lakh to 143.3 lakh, an increase of 10.2 lakh in just four years.
By the time of the current elections, that has already grown by another 3.7 lakh to reach 147 lakh. Some of this addition is young people becoming old enough to vote, but a lot of it is also adult migrants coming to the capital. Could they hold the keys to these swings?


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